2011 NBA Draft

Draft Overview

I don’t understand the huge fad on mock drafts. Yes, it’s cool to see who your favorite team is projected to pick but outside of the top 10, have you ever seen a mock draft that is just on the money and gets majority of the picks correct? For this reason, I will not be conducting a mock draft on this blog but rather evaluating the players so I can either look like a genius or a moron down the road.

In conducting player evaluations there are two main things that I look for: production at the college level and athleticism that will project at the NBA level. For this draft, due to the several players that are from different countries, projecting is made more difficult but that’s why you have the Darko Milicic’s that are drafted above Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade’s.

Also, I’m rating most of these players on first-hand watching and trying to be as unbiased as possible from listening/reading other analysts’ work. However, I had to break this code to read about the players from different countries due to lack of first-hand experiences watching them.

Without further ado, I give you your 2011 NBA draftees:

Point guards:
1. Kyrie Irving

Okay, I understand the concern that Irving has caused by only playing in 11 games last season, but people have to understand the level he was playing at when he was healthy at Duke. Duke was never the same team after his toe injury, due to Nolan Smith playing out of position and not having the intangibles that Irving displayed in his 11 games. Irving showed high basketball IQ and strong court vision by involving all of his teammates with his great passes, as well as his strong ability to attack the paint and kick it out to shooters. He is the type of player that the Cavaliers will want to build around in the future, and should be a great NBA player if his toe injury is completely healed. Another part of Irving’s IQ is that he helped Nolan Smith learn the point guard position from the sidelines after his injury, which showed great maturity for a freshman, and I don’t think it’s a stretch that he will be able to help the Cavaliers as a rookie in the NBA.

2. Brandon Knight

The Brandon Knight in the NCAA tournament was not the same effective Brandon Knight that dominated the regular season. Knight had a extremely strong freshman year but was a little underrated because of the previous John Calipari point guards (John Wall and Derrick Rose). Knight is a much better 3-point shooter than he showed in the tournament and a more consistent scorer. He did show in the tournament that he was able recover from games on off-nights to still be reliable in the clutch. Also, Knight was a 4.0 student and not the typical one-and-done athlete. The intangibles that Knight has will make his future team extremely happy.

3. Kemba Walker

What a run Kemba Walker went on to will his team to a Big East and NCAA tournament championships. Not many players around the country possess his lightning speed that caused matchup problems for all opposing point guards. However, Walker’s faults are going to come in his height (6-1), and the fact that he won’t be the fastest man on the court anymore. However, he gained a lot of confidence and maturity over the past season, as he didn’t have those intangibles in his freshman or sophomore seasons, which could help him, adjust his style of game for the NBA. I don’t think he will be the same dominant player he was at UConn, but he should be a decent point guard in the NBA.

4. Charles Jenkins

Chris Jenkins is my sleeper for the best quality pick in the upcoming draft. He is projected to be a late-first or early-second round pick. In my mind, he should be in the lottery, but due to his lack of help at Hofstra, his numbers will go largely unnoticed. Last season, he only went two games without scoring over 15 points, but he also had great games against UNC (11-for-18 and 24 points with 4 assists), VCU (20 points), and Old Dominion (19 and 16 points in 2 games). He is a strong shooter and is consistent from long-range but scouts don’t like the fact that he was a one-man show at Hofstra. I love his size at 6-3, 216 pounds, and the fact that he got to the free-throw line multiple times in nearly every game. Although he was a one-man show, I think he will be a strong point guard in the NBA and may be a huge piece for a playoff team.

5. Jimmer Fredette

I don’t want to judge Jimmer Fredette due to previous players, but haven’t we seen a player like him go to the NBA and have to re-adjust before finding any success (J.J. Redick?). Although they play different positions, the similarities have to be striking. They both were the focus at their schools and took the majority of the shots from anywhere on the floor. Fredette is a better passer than Redick, but they both were lackadaisical on defense in college (Redick has improved). Both players have great IQ and possess the ability to create space to get off their shots. I just don’t think Fredette will be an effective NBA player (strong off of the bench however) unless he improves on defense, and becomes a better point guard by driving through the paint (although his size and speed don’t help him in this category).

6. Josh Selby

This is a classic case of potential vs. college production. Selby was awful in college, with his most memorable game being his first in his buzzer beater to beat USC. I’ll admit that I was disappointed in his college production and thought he would be much more effective at Kansas under Bill Self. However, due to being one of the highest rated guards to enter college last year, he still has a chance of being drafted in the first round. The problems that I saw with Selby was a lack of energy, the fact that he didn’t run Kansas’ offense well and Self would much rather play a veteran than a freshman point guard and that he was ineffective to getting the free-throw line. To me, this is the classic case of reading the potential more than the production and Selby looks like a bust to me, unless he heads to a veteran team such as the Spurs, Celtics, Lakers, etc. that have a chance to teach him how to be a better point guard.

7. Darius Morris

Morris never produced as much as I thought he was capable of at Michigan. I don’t know whether it was the system or his true potential, but his 6-5 height and long body should have been producing more. What concerns me the most about Morris is the fact that he was only a 25 percent 3-point shooter, and only went to the free-throw line a couple of times each game. With his height he should have been a much more frequent visitor to the line. Morris did impress people with his high assist numbers and strong passing abilities, but I feel that Morris should have been a better factor on defense (created more steals) and been more of a scorer at the college level. I don’t see a strong NBA future for him as a starter but I could see him a serviceable sixth man.


8. Norris Cole

In recent days, Norris Cole has attracted a ton of attention due to reportedly strong workouts. He was extremely efficient scoring in the Horizon league, but what scares me more than the potential were the high amount of turnovers that he gave up each game. Although he produced some huge performances such as the 41-point performance against Youngstown State with 20 rebounds, he still struggled against a defensive-minded Butler; which cautions me to believe more than workouts, and great performances against small teams. I liked Cole at Cleveland State, but I don’t think he will produce in the NBA.

9. Shelvin Mack

Mack enjoyed back-to-back national championship games, but he will not have the same impact in the NBA that he had in college. Mack doesn’t have the athletic build be the scorer that he was at Butler, but he does bring decent 3-point shooting ability and a strong defensive prowess. I see Mack as the Bruce Bowen but in the point-guard position for whichever team chooses him in the draft.

Shooting guards:
1. Alec Burks

Although Colorado was hustled out of a spot in the NCAA tournament, it was not due to Alec Burks’ studly performances all season. Burks is not the greatest shooter, but he knows how to get to the free-throw line, collect a solid 6.5 rebounds per game, and generate turnovers (1.1 steals per game). Although Burks had a high number of turnovers himself, it was more due to the fact that he had to carry his team down the stretch and the times that the refs didn’t blow the whistle when he was trying to go to the free-throw line. Burks is an excellent talent as a shooting guard and will make his NBA team extremely happy.

2. Scotty Hopson

Hopson was just staring to get it. He was playing much better basketball down the stretch (although 2 of his final 3 games scored under 10 points), and he was getting to the free-throw line more regularly. His biggest problem at Tennessee was his large number of turnovers, and inconsistent play. However, I see the NBA player in Hopson. He has great size with 6-7 height, but just needs a team that will force him to work on his ball handling and making him more consistent. Although his college numbers don’t support it, I think Hopson will be a surprise breakout player from this draft.

3. Marshon Brooks

Marshon Brooks was a scorer in college, registering double-digits in every game last season. However, Brooks lived at the 3-point line for the majority of the games, which is not a good statistic for a 6-5 shooting guard. Brooks made up for living at the 3-point line by crashing the glass for seven rebounds a game. Brooks has the potential with his strong build and height to be a strong NBA player, but I think old habits die hard for a 3-point shooter and that he won’t live up to the potential he is capable of. Brooks will be a decent starter in the NBA, but I don’t see any All-Star games in his future.

4. Klay Thompson

One man who has benefited the most from pre-NBA draft workouts is Klay Thompson. He will probably be the first shooting guard selected in the upcoming draft, but I’m not buying the full workout picture. Thompson took a large number of shots in every game but didn’t get to the free-throw line as much as you would like in a player who is taking about 20 shots a game (due to the fact that nearly half of his shots were coming from the 3-point line). I am impressed with his 5.2 rebounds a game line, but for a player that isn’t slashing the lane much, he had way too many turnovers. Although I’m sure he is shooting lights out in workouts, Thompson is overrated in my mind and will be a bust for the high selection that he will receive in the draft.

5. Nolan Smith

After Kyrie Irving’s injury at Duke, Smith was forced to play point guard and still played at an extremely high level averaging over five assists a game. However, Smith is not a natural point guard and would much rather be slashing on the off-guard position. Smith has a great knack for getting to the free-throw line, crashing the glass defensively, and limiting his turnovers, but I don’t see him as a strong NBA shooting guard. His 6-2 size may force him back to point guard, but he doesn’t have the quickness that is necessary to guard other quick point guards. Smith enjoyed a great run at Duke, including a national championship, but I don’t see a long NBA career for him.

6. Jacob Pullen

Pullen may go undrafted but has the intangibles where a team should take a late-second round flier on him. Pullen knows how to will his team to victories through his capabilities to get to the free-throw line or knock down a big 3-pointer. Pullen’s size will work against him, and the fact that he has limited experience at point guard, but I see Pullen as a great backup shooting guard and a guy that can bring a lot of energy off of the bench ala the Eddie House mold.

7. E’Twaun Moore

E’Twaun Moore was a rugged type of player in college that wasn’t always pretty but got the job done. However, Moore lacks something that other players can’t bring to the table. He is a decent shooter and was inconsistent at reaching the free-throw line. Moore is stuck between the mold between a slasher and shooter, but that has plagued his potential, and causes me enough concern to believe that he won’t be in the NBA in five years, due to his strong college statistics.

8. David Lighty

Does anyone else feel as if Lighty has been around forever. I still remember him playing well in the Mike Conley and Greg Oden Ohio State days. Lighty was a 6-7 guard, but he didn’t slash to the basket much, but would rather shoot from deep. He was a great shooter, but he doesn’t bring much else to the table on offense. Lighty forced a lot of steals, but I never felt that he was a lockdown defender, and that will probably cost him on draft night, as well as in his NBA career. However, in a best-case scenario, I could see Lighty filling the Robert Horry type of player mold.

9. DeAndre Liggins

I’m sorry but if you are a 6-6 guard, and you don’t have the trust of John Calipari to play in his explosive offense, I don’t think you are going to be capable of playing the NBA. Liggins finally got some playing time this season, but he still struggled to get to the free-throw line, especially in games where his 3-pointer was not falling. I don’t see Liggins having an impact in the NBA.

Small Forwards:
1. Derrick Williams

Yes, most places consider Derrick Williams a power forward, however I think he will be moved down to small forward in the NBA. Williams definitely has the potential to be a strong player in the NBA. He can attack the basket, he can shoot 57 percent from downtown, he can get to the free-throw line at will, and single-handedly beat Duke. Will all of these pieces come together for Williams in the NBA? I think so, especially with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Ricky Rubio at the point. Williams should be a force going up-and-down the court. Now do I think Williams will be the next Blake Griffin? No, but I think he has a lot of parts to his game that he could thrive as, and eventually be a poor man’s Amare Stoudemire.

2. Kawhi Leonard

I saw Leonard play on several occasions last year, and for some reason he always left me wondering if there was more to him. I do think that he underachieved with 15.5 points and 10.6 rebounds a game. Leonard has good size with 6-7 and 225 pound frame, but didn’t go to the free-throw line as much as I would have liked. He was a good rebounder, but I think he has the potential to be an even better one. He scared me with some of his turnovers, but I think that he has the potential to be better than Derrick Williams, however, I don’t think he will reach that true potential. Leonard should make the All-Star game a few times, but if is ever drafted/traded to the right system, you could be looking at a perennial All-Star.

3. Jan Vesley

The differences between the potential vs. production debate include:
- Vesley is 6-11 and 240 pounds… as a small forward.
- He averaged 9.2 points and 3.4 rebounds per game in the Euroleague.
That is the same differences in which Ricky Rubio has been panned a bust because of his lack of production in the Euroleague. However, it is a different and much more fundamental style of basketball. Vesley is suppose to be a decent shooter but lacks a back-to-basket game, which would make him almost Dirk Nowitzki-like. If he can fine-tune his game he has the potential to be an Amare Stoudemire before the knee surgeries, otherwise he could end up as another Andrea Bargnani, if he doesn’t develop other parts of his game.

4. Chris Singleton

Another player whose intangibles, 6-9 and 225 pounds, that didn’t match his college production (13 points and 7 rebounds a game). Singleton is a lockdown defender, which will earn him a spot on any NBA team, but he doesn’t help himself by playing horrendously in half-court sets. Singleton has the size for the NBA transition offenses, but struggles to create his own shots. Singleton’s defense will give him a long career, but don’t expect to see many offensive highlights out of him.

5. Jimmy Butler

I don’t know if everyone has heard his story, but ESPN’s Chad Ford wrote a tremendous piece about Butler’s upbringing from being kicked out of the house by his mother at 13 to going to Marquette University to the NBA. Butler isn’t the best shooter but possessed a strong ability to go to the free-throw line at the end of the season. Butler plays great defense and forced a ton of steals, but isn’t the type of small forward that will create shots for himself. I see Butler as a serviceable starter in the NBA but not an All-Star due his struggles on offense, a poor man’s Shane Battier.

6. Jordan Hamilton

I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not a fan of Hamilton’s game. He doesn’t reach the free-throw line enough for the amount of shots that he takes, and he shoots far too many 3-pointers. I think Hamilton benefited from having Tristan Thompson in the frontcourt, but will struggle not being the man in the NBA. I see Hamilton being a bust in the NBA for his expected high draft selection because of the way he disappeared in games and the fact that he shot the ball way too many times for not having a smart shot selection.

7. Chandler Parsons

I love Chandler Parsons’ game. He has great basketball IQ, as he almost plays like a point guard except for his 6-10, 221 pound build. Parsons is a great passer, and was developing into a good shooter at Florida. A major cause for concern was the fact that he does not go to the free-throw line often (he is awful at the free-throw line as well at 56 percent). Although he is no stranger to the defensive glass with over seven rebounds a game, he won’t slash to the basket enough to make himself more effective. He will struggle at the NBA with his inability to go to the free-throw line and create shots because defenders know he does not drive to the basket well.

8. Kyle Singler

Talk about the differences in one season. Had Kyle Singler entered the NBA draft after the NCAA championship, he may have been a top-10 pick and now he is fighting to stay in the first round. Part of his problem last year was the fact that he got moved back to small forward after spending a season at power forward. Due to the fact that he was no longer playing against players that he was much more athletic than, he had trouble getting his shot off and driving around the quicker defenders. That is probably a sign of things to come in the NBA for Singler who may be a decent player to bring off of the bench, but I don’t see a great NBA career for one of my favorite Duke players.

9. Chris Wright

Chris Wright may go undrafted, and is probably unknown to a lot of people but Wright is one of the best athletes in this draft. He is not a very good shooter, but he knows how to hit the glass and is one of the best dunkers in this draft class. I don’t know if he will get drafted, but if he does he does have the intangibles to be a strong player off of the bench, but that possibility is based upon the fact that he learns how to shoot the ball better and learns to use athleticism to defend.

Power Forwards:
1. Kenneth Faried

As everyone learned in the NCAA tournament, Faried is a different breed of athlete and I think he will excel in the NBA. Although the team that drafts him will have a raw player on their hands based on the fact that he doesn’t have many offensive moves and is not a strong back-to-the-basket player, he knows how to get rebounds, and is a Dennis Rodman like player on defense. The big question is whether he can be effective on offense. If he can answer yes to the big question, than Faried may be the star of this draft class.

2. Marcus Morris

Although it is sometimes tough to tell the Morris twins apart, Marcus should be the first twin taken off of the board due to his dual threat of hitting a mid-range jumper, reaching the free-throw line, or draining a 3-pointer. Also, Marcus is a strong rebounder, and should be an efficient player in the NBA. Although I don’t see him as a perennial All-Star, I could see him having the same impact in the NBA as the Al Jefferson. The only knock on him is that he doesn’t possess the greatest size for power forward.

3. Tristan Thompson

Thompson has a strong knack for rebounding and reaching the free-throw line. He is long and more athletic than his size shows but he doesn’t have a strong touch shooting the ball, and back-to-the-basket game (doesn’t that seem like the theme for PF in this draft?). However, Thompson’s length and athleticism should help him out and he should be a starter in the NBA.

4. Markieff Morris

Although he was once miles behind his twin Marcus, Markieff had a terrific season at Kansas, and helped himself out but hitting the glass harder. Markieff is a strong rebounder than his twin, but he doesn’t have the same offensive weapons. Although he is not as good of a shooter, he is just as good, if not better on the defensive side and is able to grab more offensive rebounds. If the Morris twins were more athletic, I would give them All-Star predictions, but they should both be starters in the NBA. One big question has to be the fact that they will be separated for the first time in their careers and whether that will have a negative impact on them.

5. Jon Leuer

Leuer enjoyed a solid senior season at Wisconsin, but probably won’t be that effective in the NBA. Leuer will be a strong shooter at the power forward position, but he doesn’t rebound with a strong conviction and doesn’t always force fouls to get to the free-throw line. I see Leuer as a Rasheed Wallace type player, but he is not as athletic as Wallace; which could be his downfall.

6. Donatas Motiejunas

Yes, I’m not a fan of the international players this year, and that’s because I think too much is based upon one performance. Motiejunas has good size and can run the floor well but he is too soft to be a strong power forward, and didn’t play particularly strong in the Italian League. Motiejunas’ stock is based upon a strong performance in 2009 against Team USA, but I think he has bust written all over him.

7. Bismack Biyombo

Another bust that I smell is Bismack Biyombo. Yes he has some great physical traits in his wingspan and that will probably make him a great shot-blocker, but didn’t we see this a couple of years ago in Hasheem Thabeet? He was not an amazing player in the Spanish ACB League, and I don’t think he will ever be effective in the NBA. I would believe in him more if he showed strong offensive moves, but the NBA will be able to react to his size (see Yao Ming).

8. Jeremy Tyler

I do not like Tyler’s game whatsoever. He is known for skipping high school and college to play overseas in Israel in which he quit the team halfway through the season, and then played in Japan last year with decent numbers. However, I don’t think Tyler is mature enough to play in the NBA, let alone sit on the bench and watch other players be the stars. I think Tyler will be back overseas within two years of sitting on the bench.

Centers:
1. Nikola Vucevic

Take my word for it: Nikola Vucevic is a baller. He can hit the boards with the best of them, is a decent shooter, and has enough size to last in the NBA. He isn’t the greatest athlete and won’t be the best center to play in the NBA but I think he will be the best center from this draft class. He knows how to get to the free-throw line in most games, but his biggest foe in college was foul trouble, which he will have to work on in the NBA.

2. Jonas Valanciunas

Another international guy that I’m not a huge fan of but I would take him before any of the others. He average 7.6 points and 5.4 rebounds a game in the Euroleague, but has a strong feel for the paint and I think that he will be a decent center in the NBA. His solid but not great skills will define his NBA career.

3. Keith Benson

The thing that sells me on Benson is the fact that he played on one of the most run ‘n’ gun teams in college basketball and they still found ways to get the ball into their big man. Benson is strong underneath and can find ways to get to the free-throw line. Also Benson is a strong rebounder, and his great motor should be able to make him a low-line starter or great backup center.

4. Enes Kanter

First things first, how is it possible for a player to be drafted in the top 3 without playing basketball for over a season? He was ruled ineligible after signing with Kentucky but still has all of this hype? Count me as unconvinced for numerous reasons. Kanter had one strong showing in front of scouts in game competition, but is otherwise mostly based upon workouts. Sorry but for only practicing for the last year, Kanter should be excellent in controlled workout environments. I think he will be a big bust, and won’t last long in the NBA. He has great size, but I don’t think the lack of games should help a player. Kanter is the type a player that a GM will draft based more on the lack of answers rather than knowing the answers.


REPORT: KURT RAMBIS FIRED
Yahoo! Sports is reporting that Minnesota Timberwolves coach Kurt Rambis will be fired Thursday before the draft, which shouldn’t be a surprise to many. Rambis was not present for anything after the season including Ricky Rubio’s introduction to Minnesota and the upcoming draft. I think that David Kahn was waiting to make a decision on Rambis for the future Collective Bargaining Agreement, but decided to make their decision before choosing their future without a coach-in-waiting. Overall, it’s a move that will define David Kahn’s general managing career, because if the Timberwolves finish last in the NBA next season (if there is a next season), Kahn’s job is surely the next to go. Although the lineup of Rubio, Johnson, Williams, Love, Milicic (Beasley will probably be traded if Derrick Williams is selected and not traded himself) will not put fear into any other team’s eyes, they should be able to finish better than last place.