2011 MLB Preview: New York Yankees

Last season recap:
The New York Yankees jumped off to a quick 11-3 start to the season, but faced a rough patch in May, full of losing series’ and slid to 29-20. However, the Yankees are the Yankees and broke the door down in June with a 10-3 stretch to start June, and an 8-1 stretch right before the All-Star break to go 56-32 overall. The Yankees were ahead of the Rays and looking at the best record in baseball at 86-50 on September 4th. Yet, a 2-8 run after that and more losses down the stretch ruined their chance at an AL East divisional title, but they still locked up the AL wild card. In the playoffs, the Yankees smoked the Minnesota Twins in three games, before matching up with the Texas Rangers in the ALCS. The Yankees slipped up and lost the series 4-2, after their hitting disappeared against the Rangers’ strong pitching.

Current starters:
Catcher: Russell Martin

Four seasons ago, Russell Martin was considered one of the best up-and-coming catchers in baseball. He had a .293 batting average with 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases. However, after an encore of injuries such as a torn labrum in his hip and offseason knee surgeries, Martin hasn’t been the same hitter since. Last year, Martin was .248/.347/.332 with five home runs, 26 RBIs, and six stolen bases in 97 games. Although Martin has been on a downward spiral in his career, the Yankees acquisition of him is thought to be the fill-in catcher before prospect Jesus Montero reaches the Majors. Manager Joe Girardi is a former catcher, and it will be seen how positive of an effect he can have on Martin.

First Base: Mark Teixeira

Mark Teixeira is one of the elite first basemen in the game. He is a terrific fielder (four Gold Gloves), but he is notoriously known as a slow starter to the season, which prevents his offensive numbers to be in the same range as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. Last season Teixeira hit .256/.365/.481 with 33 home runs and 93 RBIs. His batting average was the lowest of his career, and his on-base and slugging percentages were the second lowest. Those numbers can partially be attributed to his slow April where Teixeira hit .136 with two home runs in 81 at-bats. Another reason that his averages have struggled are the number of curveballs that he is being thrown. Teixeira has a .322 batting average against fastballs but only an .169 batting average against curveballs (against right-handed pitching). The Yankees hitting coach is working especially hard with Teixeira in the effort to get him past his early season struggles, and make him more of an elite hitter throughout the entire season.

Second Base: Robinson Cano

Cano capped off arguably the best season of his career last year, and he hopes to improve upon it this season. His 2010 campaign provided a .319/.381/.534 with 29 home runs and 109 RBIs (all career highs except for batting average). The Yankees have to be extra proud of his numbers against the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. Against the Red Sox, Cano hit .371/.444/.543 with two home runs and 13 RBIs in 70 at-bats, while against the Rays he hit .378/.403/.662 with four home runs and 14 RBIs in 74 at-bats. If he can repeat those numbers in 2011, he will provide a big piece of the puzzle to a possible AL East divisional title.

Third Base: Alex Rodriguez

Although Alex Rodriguez put up great numbers for an average player, Rodriguez had one of the worst seasons of his career statistically. He sported the lowest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage in his career since 1995. Last year, Rodriguez hit .270/.341/.506 with 30 home runs and 125 RBIs. Rodriguez regressed against left-handed pitcher compared to his previous years as he only hit .217 last season with six home runs in 143 at-bats. The Yankees are hoping that age (35) isn’t catching up with Rodriguez, who will be a vital piece to their World Series hopes this season.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter

Brian Cashman’s assessment of Derek Jeter moving to the outfield, and his reluctance to sign Jeter in the offseason was due to Jeter having the worst statistical season of his career. Jeter hit .270/.340/.370 with 10 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases. All of the hitting averages were the lowest in a full season that Jeter has ever played. Jeter had awful numbers against right-handers .246/.316/.317 and on the road .246/.317/.317. Jeter’s power was drained in the second half of last season, only two home runs and 24 RBIs in 298 at-bats, show legitimate cause that Jeter isn’t the same player that he was. Jeter is 36 years old and just has signed a four-year deal this offseason, but the Yankees will be looking at every out clause if he struggles again this year.

Left Field: Brett Gardner

Brett Gardner was fantastic in his role on the Yankees last season, and they hope that he can expand on it this year. Gardner hit .277/.383/.379 with five home runs, 47 RBIs, 79 walks and 47 stolen bases. Gardner’s speed is a huge advantage for the Yankees and their plethora of power hitters. Gardner has the potential to be a better hitter as he hit all of his home runs before the All-Star break last year, and he hit .309/.396/.415. However, one place that Gardner struggles is against off-speed pitching (.214 batting average against curveballs and .160 against change-ups).

Center Field: Curtis Granderson

Curtis Granderson performed well in his first season in New York, but left room for improvement in 2011. Last year Granderson hit .247/.324/.468 with 24 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 12 stolen bases. Granderson struggled against left-handers .234/.292/.354 with only four home runs and 12 RBIs in 158 at-bats, and he must improve if he wants to be an everyday outfielder. Granderson played significantly better in the second half of last season, and the Yankees are hoping that trend continues as he becomes more accumulated in playing in New York.

Right Field: Nick Swisher

Nick Swisher had the best season of his Major League career, as he hit .288/.359/.511 with 29 home runs and 89 RBIs. Swisher provides the most power out of all the outfielders and makes him a regular everyday starter. One point of emphasis that Swisher needs to work on is his recognition of off-speed pitches. Last season Swisher had a .108 batting average against curveballs from right-handed pitchers and .143 against left-handers. If Swisher can add his power to more than fastballs, Swisher will be thought of more than a third power option in the Yankee lineup.

DH: Jorge Posada

The 39-year-old Posada has finally outgrown the catcher position and will be more of a DH this year. Last year Posada hit .248/.357/.454 with 18 home runs, 57 RBIs, and three stolen bases (career high in stolen bases). Posada was significantly worse on the road than at Yankee Stadium last year, as he hit .205/.332/.362 (compared to .288/.382/.540 at home). Posada was awful against curveballs last year, and as his career dwindles down, the Yankees are hoping that they can squeeze a year or two more out of him.

Rotation:
1. CC Sabathia

CC Sabathia made a strong case for AL Cy Young last season, but Felix Hernandez had different plans. Also, Sabathia made a strong case for his friend Cliff Lee to join the Yankees rotation this year, but that didn’t happen either. 2011 should be about what Sabathia can deliever for a Yankee club that needs him more than ever. Last year, Sabathia went 21-7 with 3.18/1.19/.239 with 197 strikeouts in 237.2 innings. However, the downside to Sabathia’s season was his performance in the postseason. Sabathia was 3-3 with a 5.63 ERA, which led to the Yankees’ dismissal from the playoffs. The Yankees are hoping that his postseason numbers will improve dramatically this year.

2. A.J. Burnett

Burnett had one of his worst professional seasons last year, and that’s not going to help him in New York. Last year, Burnett went 10-15 with 5.26/1.51/.285 with 145 strikeouts in 186.2 innings. Burnett was horrendous on the road last season going 5-8 with a 5.76 ERA and a .290 batting average against him. Also, after the All-Star break, Burnett went 3-8 with a 5.95 ERA. The Yankees’ offensive lineup is one of the best in baseball, but they can’t afford for their rotation to be in shambles. Hitters hit Burnett’s fastball for a .284 batting average, and that must go down this season for him to improve.

3. Phil Hughes

Phil Hughes was one of the most successful prospects in the Yankees’ always limited farm system, making Brian Cashman feeling proud of Hughes’ success last year. Last season Hughes went 18-8 with 4.19/1.25/.244 with 146 strikeouts in 176.1 innings. This year may be the year that the Yankees take the pitching limit off Hughes, and let the 24-year-old star show his true potential. However, a case that they may keep Hughes’ pitch count low is the fact that he was significantly worse in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, Hughes was 7-6 with a 4.90 ERA, compared to an 11-2 record and 3.65 ERA in the first half. The Yankees are hoping that Hughes will return to the first half pitcher that they saw last year.

4. Andy Pettitte

Yes, I’m making the prediction that Pettitte will return for the 2011 season, due to the fact that he is working out and hasn’t completely ruled it out. The Yankees need Pettitte to return for a chance at a World Series title, and Pettitte can’t be happy with how last season turned out. Pettitte was 11-3 last year with 3.28/1.27/.257 with a 7.05 K/9. Although Pettitte didn’t pitch much in the second half last season, I could see a situation where Pettitte joins the Yankees halfway through the year. If Pettitte returns this season, the Yankees will be a strong contender for the World Series.

5. Ivan Nova

The fifth spot in the rotation is up in the air but Ivan Nova has to be the odds-on favorite to grab it. Nova started seven games last year to go 1-2 with 4.50/1.45/.268 with a 5.57 K/9. Nova’s best start came against the Chicago White Sox where he went 5.1 innings to give up five hits, one earned run, and seven strikeouts in his first victory. In the minor leagues, Nova went 12-3 with a 2.86 ERA and 115 strikeouts in 145 innings. Nova has a lot of potential, and with the help of the Yankees’ lineup, he should be able to adjust well.

Bullpen (closer: Mariano Rivera):

One of the primary strengths this season for the New York Yankees will be their bullpen. Mariano Rivera returns after a great season, even at the age of 40. Last season Rivera was 3-3 with 1.80/0.83/.183, 33 saves (five blown), and a 6.75 K/9. However, a sign of troubles is that Rivera had a bad second half of the season as he went 1-2 with a 2.81 ERA and .240 opponent batting average against him compared to a 2-1 with a 1.05 ERA and .137 in the first half of the season. The Yankees biggest offseason acquisition was Rafael Soriano, who they paid big money to be their setup man. Soriano was amazing last year going 3-2 with 1.73/0.80/.163, 45 saves (three blown), and a 8.23 K/9. Soriano has the potential to be an elite closer, let alone setup man, and although it was a bad contract, Soriano is a great addition to the ballclub. Also, Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33/1.09/.223, and a 4.83 K/9), Damaso Marte (4.08/1.19/.161 and nine holds), and Joba Chamberlain (3-4, 4.40/1.30/.253, and 26 holds) are great pitchers to secure leads at the end of games.

Crystal Ball:
The Yankees are entering the season after their quietest offseason in my recent memory. The lineup of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, and Robinson Cano will always be able to produce a number of runs, and their bullpen should be able to hold those leads together. However, will the starting pitching staff be good enough to help the Yankees win a World Series? Take CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes out of the equation, and the Yankees could be in trouble, especially if Andy Pettitte doesn’t return this season. The Yankees will be a good team, but will they be great?

Next Up: Boston Red Sox

Previous Teams:
Tampa Bay Rays