*Writers Note: This will be my MLB team previews, where I will preview all 30 MLB teams before the season begins March 31, the San Francisco Giants versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. I will give my opinion and predictions on the upcoming season. The order of preview will be determined by last season’s regular season record (division by division, starting with the AL East). The depth charts I use may be different than the way it opens in March or April, but I’m working with the current rosters as of my writing dates.
The statistics I use will be as follows: batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage. An example would be Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469). For pitchers it will be as follows: Earned run average/WHIP/opposing batting average. An example would be Francisco Liriano (3.62/1.26/.252). I’m still a novice with Fangraphs data, however, I will be writing with InsideEdge statistics and home/away splits [among other splits].
After the end of my 30 previews, I will give an entire MLB preview, including my bold predictions for the upcoming season. Thanks for reading and feel free to comment on any team preview. I can always use a good, insightful argument.
Last season recap:
The Rays reached a monumental point last season, as they were in the midst of a possible transition. They knew they would be unable to keep superstar Carl Crawford after this season (as he has landed with the rival Red Sox), but were they going to trade him halfway through the season if they struggled out of the gate? However, they never needed to worry about it as they jumped off to a 17-6 start in April, and were instantly contenders to compete in the most difficult division in baseball. The momentum continued to pile through May, until they reached a rough stretch in June with a 5-12 record between June 10th- June 29th. Right with the momentum swinging, the Rays turned ship by going on a 10-2 streak into the All-Star game. The Rays played well enough to decide to keep Crawford throughout the season, and it led to the Rays winning the AL East, ending the reign owned by rivals New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The Rays entered the playoffs against upbeat Texas Rangers and lost the series 3-2, after losing two of the games by the hands of Cliff Lee.
Current starters:
Catcher: John Jaso
Jaso is a relatively unknown catcher, as he is only an average hitter but much better defensively. He played in 109 games last year, hitting .263/.372/.378, five home runs, 44 RBIs, and twenty more walks than strikeouts. It’s always a good sign to see a young hitter gaining more walks than strikeouts, but his hitting against left-handers was atrocious. Against lefties Jaso has a .191 batting average with only nine hits in 47 at-bats. To be an everyday catcher, Jaso will have to improve on hitting against both handed pitchers.
First Base: Dan Johnson
Dan Johnson had the tale of two cities last year, as his performance was dramatically different in the minor leagues than the Majors. In his 40 games in the Majors, Johnson hit .198/.343/.414 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs. In his 98 games in the minor leagues, Johnson hit .303/.430/.624 with 30 home runs and 95 RBIs. If Johnson can transfer his minor league success to the Majors, the Rays will have a great duo on the corners with Johnson and Longoria.
Second Base: Sean Rodriguez
Last season was Sean Rodriguez’s first full season in the Majors, and he saved himself plenty of room for improvement next year. Rodriguez hit an abysmal .251/.308/.397 with nine home runs, 40 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases. Rodriguez hit .221 against fastballs and .261 against change-ups (.364 against right-handed change-ups), but struggled mightily against curves (.174) and sliders (.150). Although Rodriguez is a good fielder, he must improve hitting this season.
Third Base: Evan Longoria
One of the most underpaid players in the game right now, as he is considered in the top-10 of current players. Longoria deserves the high praise that he has received by hitting .294/.372/.507 with 22 home runs, 104 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases. Longoria had a batting average of .317 against fastball last season but has to improve upon hitting outside off-speed pitching. The key to this season is that he will have more protection in the lineup with the addition of Manny Ramirez. If Ramirez still has thunder in his bat, you can bet that Longoria will have a tremendous season, and show fans why he is the most underpaid player in baseball after signing a $45 million extension, instead of waiting for a hefty pay day.
Shortstop: Ben Zobrist
Ben Zobrist is one of the most versatile baseball players in the league, as he played games at six different positions last season. However, he struggled at the plate compared to his 2009 campaign by only hitting .238/.346/.353 last season with 10 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 24 stolen bases. If Zobrist can return to his 2009 stats of nearly a .300 average and 20+ home runs, he will help carry the weight of Carl Crawford’s absence. For unknown reasons, Zobrist hit much better on the road last year, and the Rays really need him to be able to become a more important factor this season.
Left Field: Johnny Damon
The Rays are hoping that Damon can lessen the blow of the loss of Carl Crawford. Although, Damon is not the fielder that he once was and is probably better suited for DH, he will have to be playing in the field about four-five games a week, with the Rays addition of Manny Ramirez. Damon doesn’t have the athleticism that he displayed earlier in his career, but he can still be a decent hitter. Damon hit .271/.355/.401 with eight home runs (lowest since 2001), 51 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases (RBIs and stolen bases are lowest since his rookie season in 1995, where he only played in 47 games). Damon can provide a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse, but will he be able to produce enough to warrant a starting outfield spot?
Center Field: B.J. Upton
B.J. Upton has to be making a case for the most promising player that is underachieving right now. He had an unbelievable 2007 season in which he it for a .300 batting average along with 24 home runs and 82 RBIs. However, he hasn’t been able to play at that level since. Last year, Upton hit .237/.322/.424 with 18 home runs, 62 RBIs, and 42 stolen bases. Upton’s struggles were shown on the highest stage in the playoffs where he hit for a .190 batting average (4 for 21). Upton hit significantly better against left-handed pitching (.278/.381/.538 vs. .218/.294/.371 against right-handers). For the Rays, if they have any chance to repeat as division champions, Upton is going to have become a better hitter for average and power.
Right Field: Desmond Jennings
Jennings spent nearly all of last season in the minor leagues, but he has been hailed as the heir to Carl Crawford’s role in the outfield. Jennings hit .278/.362/.393 with three home runs, 36 RBIs, and 37 stolen bases at Triple-A Durham. Jennings struggles against left-handed pitching .198/.343/.291 and only one home run in 86 at-bats. Another concern is the splits of home and away, and before and after the All-Star break. Jennings was significantly better at home than on the road (.451 slugging percentage at home compared to .332 on the road; and he was hitting .297/.375/.419 before the All-Star break compared to .253/.345/.359 afterwards). The Rays are going to go through their rookie struggles with Jennings, but his potential is endless as he has the potential to steal 40 bases, and gain a .400 on-base percentage.
DH: Manny Ramirez
The Rays made a splash by signing Manny Ramirez for primarily DH duties, as he once was one of the most feared sluggers in baseball. Unfortunately, Ramirez hasn’t been the same hitter since he was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Last season, Ramirez spent the season between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago White Sox. Overall, Ramirez hit .298/.409/.460 with nine home runs, 42 RBIs, and 46 walks. However, his splits between the Dodgers and White Sox are drastically different. Ramirez’s slugging percentage with the Dodgers was .510, while it was only .319 with the White Sox (one home run in 69 at-bats). The Rays have to be praying that Ramirez can pull a Vladimir Guerrero, and show the world that he has more left in the tank, but critics have pointed at Ramirez’s diminishing skills for a couple of years now. Ramirez still is a strong fastball hitter, but he isn’t as effective against off-speed pitches as he used to be. On the Rays, his primary duty will be protecting Evan Longoria, and the Rays need him to do so, if they hope to repeat as AL East champions.
Rotation:
1. David Price
When David Price emerged on the national scene in 2008 with his strong relief duties in the playoffs, fans knew they were viewing the next superstar pitcher. Price didn’t fail to deliver. Price was named the AL starting pitcher of the All-Star game in his best season of his professional career. Last season Price went 19-6 with 2.72/1.19/.221 and 188 strikeouts in 208.2 innings. However, Price struggled in the playoffs against the Texas Rangers, and was twice upstaged by Cliff Lee, which should drive him to pitch better in 2011. Price was dominant at home in the regular season by going 9-2 and a 1.96 ERA. Another strong statistic was that Price remained the same before and after the All-Star game, which is tough for a young pitcher to show strong consistency. Price uses his fastball 73% of the time, with a strong slider that is used 18% of the time, but he is still developing his change-up and curve, which would give him a greater plethora of tools against hitters. Rays are expecting that Price has another strong showing this year, as are the rest of the opposing hitters that he will face.
2. James Shields
James Shields had a strong season, although his 13-15 record won’t show for it. Shields had a 5.18/1.46/.294 last season including 187 strikeouts in 203.1 innings for a 8.28 K/9. The problems for Shields were magnified after the All-Star break where he sported a 5.59 ERA. Shields has a devastating change-up but his fastball has become too hittable, which lessens the effect of his change-up and forces him behind in too many counts. The Rays survived an average James Shields last year, but they have to be hoping that he can pick up the slack this season after the Red Sox revamped their lineup, to make the AL East that much tougher.
3. Wade Davis
Wade Davis’ first full season was a success. Davis went 12-10 with 4.07/1.35/.255 and 113 strikeouts in 168 innings. A strong sign for the future of Davis was the success he showed after the All-Star break. Davis went 6-1 with a 3.28 ERA after the break, and with a higher inning total this season, Davis should be on the verge of a breakout season. Also, Davis was much better on the road than at home, by going 6-3 with a 3.94 ERA on the road, and 6-7 with a 4.18 ERA at home. Another sign that Davis is poised for the big stage was his success against the AL East last season, as he sported a winning record against all of the teams, except the Red Sox. If Davis can progress from last season, the Rays will have two future stars in Davis and David Price.
4. Jeremy Hellickson
The Rays are hoping that they have found the next David Price superstar in Jeremy Hellickson. Throughout his season in the minor leagues and his brief appearances in the Majors, Hellickson has impressed thus far. At Triple-A Durham last season, Hellickson went 12-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 117.2 innings. Hellickson won tons of accolades for his success in the minors last season, and he also translated it to the Majors. In his 10 appearances (four starts) Hellickson was 4-0 with 3.47/1.10/.232 and 33 strikeouts in 36.1 innings. What has the Rays salivating over the potential of Hellickson? The starts that he made in August were fantastic. Here are the lines of his four starts:
Aug. 2 vs. Minnesota: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Aug. 10 vs. Detroit: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Aug. 15 vs. Baltimore: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Aug. 20 vs. Oakland: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
If Hellickson can slide his minor league numbers over to the Majors this season, the Rays will be tremendously happy as they may be atop the division and smart after they parted with Matt Garza.
5. Jeff Niemann
Jeff Niemann has to be happy that the Rays traded away Garza, because he may not be in the rotation if he remained on the Rays. Niemann went 12-8 last season with 4.39/1.26/.242 and 131 strikeouts in 174.1 innings. Niemann was awesome before the All-Star break but wasn’t the same after. Before the break, Niemann was 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA, but he struggled afterwards going 5-6 with a 7.69 ERA. If he can end the season stronger than he did last season, the Rays will be smiling all season with a strong rotation.
Bullpen (closer: Jake McGee):
After Rafael Soriano bolted for the Yankees, the Rays are hoping that their bullpen will still be able to hold late inning leads. Jake McGee is projected to be closer, although he only recorded one save at Triple-A Durham last season. McGee had a strong K/9, but will he be able to handle the pressure of closing games? Recently, the Rays signed the inconsistent Kyle Farnsworth, which could be the signing of the off-season if he pans out, however he will be labeled a failure after his struggles as a Yankee. Andy Sonnanstine will remain the team’s long reliever, as he did a decent job in that position last year. Overall, the Rays have a lot of low-paid relievers, but they need them to be dominant all season if they are to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees for the divisional title.
Crystal Ball:
The Rays shocked the world by winning the division last season over the Yankees and the Red Sox. However, all of their key free agents (Crawford and Soriano) went back to the super powers in the East and the Rays are going to have to rely on talent from their farm system to keep close with the high rollers. Jeremy Hellickson should be a star, but I predict struggles for Desmond Jennings. It should be an interesting roller coaster for the Rays, as they are one of the youngest teams in baseball, but I don’t see a repeat coming as divisional champions.
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